Connor McDavid vs Nick Schmaltz
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 17-6 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 92.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 84.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
6
(23 meetings)
17
6
McDavid
Schmaltz
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
2
McDavid
Schmaltz
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
7
3
McDavid
Schmaltz
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
41.2% (3,399)
+6.5%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
47.1% (649)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
47.8% (134)
-4.4%
On even strength, McDavid has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
49.3% (4,570)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
46.5%
41.1%
P2
48.7%
42.9%
P3
48.3%
43.0%
OT
40.9%
42.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 11:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |