Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 68.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 92.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 88.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Hayes
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
Last 7: Hayes 6-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
38.5% (309)
+18.1%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
53.2% (79)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
25.0% (12)
+40.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Hayes
Schmaltz
Home
58.0% (405)
38.0% (184)
Away
56.1% (433)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Hayes
Schmaltz
P1
54.7%
40.3%
P2
55.7%
39.9%
P3
60.2%
40.7%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |