Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.2% vs 49.6%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 49.4% vs Gourde 49.7% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 77.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 77.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Schmaltz
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Schmaltz
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Schmaltz
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (268)
51.2% (469)
-3.1%
Power Play
50.5% (91)
42.9% (21)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
37.5% (48)
+21.3%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Schmaltz shoots right. Gourde is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Gourde
Home
49.0% (206)
47.8% (301)
Away
49.4% (170)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Schmaltz
Gourde
P1
53.6%
47.3%
P2
46.2%
53.4%
P3
50.4%
48.6%
OT
16.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |