Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.1% vs 45.5%). Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 83.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 77.8%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Schmaltz
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Schmaltz
Gourde
Last 10: Schmaltz 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
5
Schmaltz
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (665)
47.2% (654)
-1.3%
Power Play
46.8% (111)
45.0% (20)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
32.2% (87)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Schmaltz shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Gourde
Home
44.7% (409)
44.1% (322)
Away
47.6% (391)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Schmaltz
Gourde
P1
40.3%
42.4%
P2
47.6%
49.8%
P3
51.0%
44.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 07:27 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |