Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.2% vs 55.7%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hischier wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hischier 54.9% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.1%
Defensive zone
Hischier 74.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.3%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Hischier
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hischier
Stamkos
Last 9: Hischier 3-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Hischier
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
2
1
Hischier
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Hischier
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hischier
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,107)
56.1% (342)
-1.1%
Power Play
63.1% (252)
53.3% (92)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
62.5% (8)
-18.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hischier is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (531).
Hischier shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Hischier
Stamkos
Home
56.5% (763)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.0% (745)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Hischier
Stamkos
P1
56.0%
55.6%
P2
57.6%
52.8%
P3
53.0%
59.1%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
55.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |