Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.5% vs 55.9%). Hischier wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hischier 55.2% vs Hertl 55.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.2%
Defensive zone
Hischier 71.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Hischier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Hischier
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Hischier
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
1
0
Hischier
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hischier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (1,228)
54.1% (717)
+1.7%
Power Play
62.1% (282)
61.9% (210)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (267)
58.1% (31)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hischier is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,187).
Hischier shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Hischier
Hertl
Home
56.5% (867)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.6% (910)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Hischier
Hertl
P1
57.9%
57.1%
P2
55.9%
54.0%
P3
52.7%
56.6%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
55.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |