Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hischier wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hischier 54.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hischier 52.3%
Defensive zone
Hischier 81.6%
Neutral zone
Hischier 61.5%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Hischier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hischier
Hertl
Last 7: Hischier 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Hischier
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Hischier
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hischier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,107)
58.1% (823)
-3.1%
Power Play
63.1% (252)
56.2% (265)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
62.9% (35)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hischier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (977).
Hischier shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Hischier
Hertl
Home
56.5% (763)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.0% (745)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Hischier
Hertl
P1
56.0%
51.6%
P2
57.6%
63.8%
P3
53.0%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
55.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | OT | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2025 | OT | 02:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |