Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.9% vs Sturm 52.5% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 89.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 51.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 72.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Rodrigues
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Rodrigues
Sturm
Last 8: Rodrigues 2-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Rodrigues
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
Rodrigues
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Rodrigues
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (318)
54.0% (480)
-6.8%
Power Play
52.4% (42)
28.6% (7)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
50.0% (102)
-7.7%
On power play, Rodrigues has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Rodrigues shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Sturm
Home
49.8% (215)
54.0% (287)
Away
44.4% (171)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Rodrigues
Sturm
P1
44.2%
53.5%
P2
53.5%
51.0%
P3
44.6%
55.1%
OT
40.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 01:16 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 06:53 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |