Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Sturm 59.0% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 62.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 58.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Hayes
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hayes
Sturm
Last 9: Hayes 3-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Hayes
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Hayes
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
60.6% (708)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
61.1% (18)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
56.4% (101)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Hayes
Sturm
Home
58.0% (405)
61.6% (451)
Away
56.1% (433)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Hayes
Sturm
P1
54.7%
55.9%
P2
55.7%
58.9%
P3
60.2%
64.6%
OT
50.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
58.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |