Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Danault shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Danault 54.0% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Danault 67.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 58.8%
Neutral zone
Danault 54.2%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Sturm
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Sturm
Danault
Last 5: Sturm 2-3 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Danault
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
2
Sturm
Danault
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
55.1% (953)
+1.0%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
64.6% (144)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
42.0% (176)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Danault is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Home / Away
Sturm
Danault
Home
55.6% (412)
55.4% (641)
Away
56.0% (468)
53.3% (632)
By Period
Sturm
Danault
P1
59.6%
61.0%
P2
52.0%
52.3%
P3
55.5%
51.3%
OT
60.0%
35.3%
Final 5 min
56.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 17, 2022 | OT | 04:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |