Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubois on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Dubois 49.0% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dubois 75.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 87.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 64.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Sturm
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Sturm
Dubois
Last 9: Sturm 5-4 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
4
Sturm
Dubois
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Dubois
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Dubois
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
48.7% (809)
+7.4%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
50.9% (163)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
37.5% (16)
+13.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Dubois is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Home / Away
Sturm
Dubois
Home
55.6% (412)
50.5% (497)
Away
56.0% (468)
47.3% (491)
By Period
Sturm
Dubois
P1
59.6%
49.0%
P2
52.0%
48.2%
P3
55.5%
49.1%
OT
60.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 06:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |