Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Zegras 42.6% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 82.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.9%
Neutral zone
Zegras 59.7%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 82.5%
17.5%
82.5%
Sturm
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Sturm
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Sturm
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
41.1% (559)
+15.0%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
50.0% (12)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
50.0% (2)
+1.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Sturm
Zegras
Home
55.6% (412)
45.7% (247)
Away
56.0% (468)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Sturm
Zegras
P1
59.6%
45.5%
P2
52.0%
36.8%
P3
55.5%
41.1%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |