Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Zegras 39.2% (+17.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 72.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 97.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 95.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Sturm
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Sturm
Zegras
Last 10: Sturm 8-2 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Zegras
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
0
Sturm
Zegras
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
38.6% (1,669)
+18.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
38.5% (148)
+22.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
28.6% (7)
+22.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Sturm
Zegras
Home
57.1% (1,614)
39.9% (882)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Sturm
Zegras
P1
56.5%
40.2%
P2
54.9%
38.0%
P3
57.4%
37.7%
OT
60.6%
31.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 06:42 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 1 | 09:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |