Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Gourde 49.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 57.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Sturm
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sturm
Gourde
Last 8: Sturm 5-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Sturm
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
49.1% (731)
+4.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
54.3% (81)
-25.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
48.2% (85)
+1.8%
On power play, Gourde has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Sturm
Gourde
Home
54.0% (287)
50.9% (479)
Away
52.0% (302)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Sturm
Gourde
P1
53.5%
51.2%
P2
51.0%
49.8%
P3
55.1%
47.5%
OT
20.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 17:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 19:52 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 19:15 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |