Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Gourde 49.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 76.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 64.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.6%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Sturm
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Sturm
Gourde
Last 7: Sturm 3-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
Sturm
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
49.1% (847)
+7.0%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
79.5% (44)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
39.5% (81)
+11.6%
On power play, Gourde has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Sturm
Gourde
Home
55.6% (412)
50.1% (491)
Away
56.0% (468)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Sturm
Gourde
P1
59.6%
54.7%
P2
52.0%
45.0%
P3
55.5%
49.4%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:35 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 04:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |