Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Gourde 48.0% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 53.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 67.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.2%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Sturm
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Sturm
Gourde
Last 6: Sturm 3-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Sturm
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
48.0% (914)
+12.6%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
54.2% (48)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
43.9% (123)
+12.5%
On even strength, Sturm has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Sturm
Gourde
Home
61.6% (451)
50.2% (512)
Away
58.2% (376)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Sturm
Gourde
P1
55.9%
50.0%
P2
58.9%
45.3%
P3
64.6%
48.6%
OT
70.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |