Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Gourde 48.2% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 15-15 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 71.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 67.5%
Neutral zone
Gourde 57.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Sturm
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
15
(30 meetings)
15
15
Sturm
Gourde
Last 10: Sturm 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
9
Sturm
Gourde
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
8
3
Sturm
Gourde
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Gourde
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
48.4% (4,954)
+8.7%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
57.4% (376)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
39.9% (554)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Sturm
Gourde
Home
57.1% (1,614)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Sturm
Gourde
P1
56.5%
49.9%
P2
54.9%
47.4%
P3
57.4%
47.5%
OT
60.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:35 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |