Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Gourde 49.7% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 66.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 60.1%
Neutral zone
Gourde 64.4%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Sturm
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Sturm
Gourde
Last 7: Sturm 3-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Sturm
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Sturm
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
51.2% (469)
+10.9%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
42.9% (21)
+32.1%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
37.5% (48)
+1.2%
On power play, Sturm has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Sturm
Gourde
Home
61.8% (191)
47.8% (301)
Away
56.3% (231)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Sturm
Gourde
P1
58.0%
47.3%
P2
57.9%
53.4%
P3
60.6%
48.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |