Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.7%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Roy 47.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 64.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 52.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
McDavid
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McDavid
Roy
Last 8: McDavid 5-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
McDavid
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
48.6% (679)
-0.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
48.0% (50)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
34.7% (49)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
McDavid
Roy
Home
47.3% (387)
49.3% (345)
Away
48.1% (389)
46.4% (433)
By Period
McDavid
Roy
P1
47.6%
47.6%
P2
50.0%
47.1%
P3
45.0%
47.9%
Final 5 min
46.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |