Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 44.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 44.0% vs Roy 46.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 66.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 60.5%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Schmaltz
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Schmaltz
Roy
Last 8: Schmaltz 4-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
1
Schmaltz
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Schmaltz
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (485)
41.5% (275)
+1.0%
Power Play
45.1% (51)
81.8% (11)
-36.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
61.3% (31)
+38.7%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +38.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Schmaltz is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Schmaltz shoots right. Roy is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Roy
Home
45.0% (258)
46.1% (167)
Away
40.9% (279)
43.3% (150)
By Period
Schmaltz
Roy
P1
47.0%
46.7%
P2
42.7%
38.5%
P3
38.4%
50.5%
Final 5 min
47.6%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 06:50 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |