Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs Buchnevich 41.5% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 66.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.0%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 53.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Roy
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Roy
Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Roy
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
37.6% (197)
+9.9%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
50.0% (6)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
0.0% (3)
+46.4%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +46.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. Buchnevich is 34.4% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Roy
Buchnevich
Home
47.2% (398)
43.0% (114)
Away
46.3% (369)
30.4% (92)
By Period
Roy
Buchnevich
P1
48.6%
40.0%
P2
48.8%
35.7%
P3
43.9%
35.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
46.8%
Buchnevich
40.0%▬
41.0%
37.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 01:29 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |