Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Buchnevich 41.2% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 60.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 88.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 84.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Roy
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Roy
Buchnevich
Last 6: Roy 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Roy
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Buchnevich
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
37.0% (211)
+11.6%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
50.0% (10)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
28.6% (7)
+6.1%
On even strength, Roy has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. Buchnevich is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Home / Away
Roy
Buchnevich
Home
49.3% (345)
35.6% (87)
Away
46.4% (433)
38.3% (141)
By Period
Roy
Buchnevich
P1
47.6%
36.3%
P2
47.1%
37.6%
P3
47.9%
38.1%
Final 5 min
45.5%
36.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.7%
Buchnevich
40.0%▬
41.0%
37.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:13 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |