Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs Zacha 54.4% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 53.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 88.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 70.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Roy
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Roy
Zacha
Last 7: Roy 1-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
4
Roy
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Roy
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
53.9% (787)
-6.4%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
63.2% (193)
-23.6%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
44.3% (88)
+2.1%
On power play, Zacha has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Roy
Zacha
Home
47.2% (398)
56.7% (538)
Away
46.3% (369)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Roy
Zacha
P1
48.6%
52.6%
P2
48.8%
54.8%
P3
43.9%
56.8%
OT
0.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
45.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:04 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |