Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Zacha 52.8% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 66.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 87.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 72.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Roy
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Roy
Zacha
Last 5: Roy 0-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Roy
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Roy
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Roy
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
54.1% (534)
-5.5%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
56.0% (109)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
44.8% (96)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. Zacha is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Roy
Zacha
Home
49.3% (345)
53.4% (406)
Away
46.4% (433)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Roy
Zacha
P1
47.6%
56.8%
P2
47.1%
53.6%
P3
47.9%
49.2%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |