Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 49.1%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 16 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Zacha 49.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 24-9 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 57.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 74.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 56.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Roy
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
24
(33 meetings)
9
24
Roy
Zacha
Last 10: Roy 2-8 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
15
Roy
Zacha
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
3
Roy
Zacha
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
6
Roy
Zacha
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
48.9% (5,102)
-0.2%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
55.6% (804)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
42.2% (555)
+3.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Roy
Zacha
Home
49.5% (2,221)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Roy
Zacha
P1
50.8%
49.9%
P2
46.3%
49.2%
P3
48.1%
48.1%
OT
50.0%
53.1%
Final 5 min
47.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:30 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |