Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +20.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Smith 43.8% (+20.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 60.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 83.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 69.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Roy
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roy
Smith
Last 5: Roy 3-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
33.3% (51)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
0.0% (2)
+53.3%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Smith is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (28).
Home / Away
Roy
Smith
Home
54.0% (328)
25.0% (24)
Away
50.6% (348)
37.9% (29)
By Period
Roy
Smith
P1
53.5%
21.1%
P2
51.6%
30.0%
P3
51.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
26.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Smith
30.0%▼
35.0%
32.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Reilly Smith |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Reilly Smith |