Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Smith 40.9% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 53.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 83.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 63.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Roy
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roy
Smith
Last 5: Roy 3-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
36.1% (119)
+12.6%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
75.0% (4)
-25.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
26.5% (34)
+19.0%
On power play, Smith has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Smith is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Roy
Smith
Home
49.5% (2,221)
32.1% (81)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
38.2% (76)
By Period
Roy
Smith
P1
50.8%
29.0%
P2
46.3%
36.4%
P3
48.1%
43.2%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Smith
30.0%▼
35.0%
35.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Reilly Smith |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Reilly Smith |