Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Donato 45.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 78.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 55.2%
Neutral zone
Donato 59.7%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Roy
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Roy
Donato
Last 7: Roy 2-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
4
Roy
Donato
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
43.5% (400)
+5.1%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
48.7% (119)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
33.3% (6)
+1.4%
On even strength, Roy has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Roy
Donato
Home
49.3% (345)
50.2% (279)
Away
46.4% (433)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Roy
Donato
P1
47.6%
44.6%
P2
47.1%
46.6%
P3
47.9%
42.0%
OT
75.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:42 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |