Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.0% vs 48.7%). Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Steel 48.8% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 77.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 71.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 54.6%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Roy
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Roy
Steel
Last 9: Roy 5-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Roy
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
4
0
Roy
Steel
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Roy
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
49.5% (553)
-1.2%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
61.3% (31)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
30.6% (49)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. Steel is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Roy
Steel
Home
50.8% (376)
46.4% (347)
Away
45.4% (392)
51.4% (286)
By Period
Roy
Steel
P1
53.8%
52.1%
P2
43.5%
49.8%
P3
46.4%
45.2%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2023 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 12:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:47 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Sam Steel |