Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 48.5%). Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Lorentz 48.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 58.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 63.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 54.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Roy
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Roy
Lorentz
Last 9: Roy 2-7 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
3
Roy
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Roy
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
3
Roy
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
48.9% (1,118)
-0.2%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
50.0% (26)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
41.9% (86)
+3.6%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Lorentz is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (450).
Home / Away
Roy
Lorentz
Home
49.5% (2,221)
50.8% (606)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Roy
Lorentz
P1
50.8%
53.0%
P2
46.3%
46.8%
P3
48.1%
46.1%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |