Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.0% vs 47.9%). Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 56.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 62.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 54.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Roy
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Roy
Lorentz
Last 9: Roy 2-7 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
3
Roy
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Roy
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
3
Roy
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
48.3% (497)
+0.0%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
63.6% (11)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
38.5% (39)
+5.2%
On power play, Lorentz has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Roy
Lorentz
Home
50.8% (376)
50.4% (238)
Away
45.4% (392)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Roy
Lorentz
P1
53.8%
49.1%
P2
43.5%
48.0%
P3
46.4%
47.2%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |