Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.0% vs Hertl 54.7% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 61.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 59.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Roy
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Roy
Hertl
Last 10: Roy 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Roy
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
5
Roy
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (275)
55.7% (648)
-14.2%
Power Play
81.8% (11)
60.4% (149)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
61.3% (31)
42.2% (83)
+19.1%
On power play, Roy has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Roy is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (226).
Roy shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Roy
Hertl
Home
46.1% (167)
58.3% (391)
Away
43.3% (150)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Roy
Hertl
P1
46.7%
58.9%
P2
38.5%
51.5%
P3
50.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
42.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
44.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 2 | 04:06 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |