Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 74.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 57.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Roy
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
14
(27 meetings)
13
14
Roy
Hertl
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Roy
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
8
3
Roy
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Roy
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
54.1% (1,117)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
59.8% (296)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
34.4% (32)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Roy
Hertl
Home
50.8% (376)
54.3% (709)
Away
45.4% (392)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Roy
Hertl
P1
53.8%
51.6%
P2
43.5%
53.6%
P3
46.4%
58.6%
OT
75.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
47.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |