Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 36-33 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Roy
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
36
(69 meetings)
33
36
Roy
Hertl
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
11
Roy
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
17
16
Roy
Hertl
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
11
9
Roy
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.1%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
59.3% (1,975)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
46.3% (806)
-0.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Roy
Hertl
Home
49.5% (2,221)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Roy
Hertl
P1
50.8%
53.6%
P2
46.3%
54.1%
P3
48.1%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |