Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 64.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Roy
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Roy
Hertl
Last 6: Roy 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Roy
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roy
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
57.0% (718)
-9.5%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
64.9% (188)
-25.3%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
44.2% (77)
+2.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Roy
Hertl
Home
47.2% (398)
59.2% (463)
Away
46.3% (369)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Roy
Hertl
P1
48.6%
56.3%
P2
48.8%
55.4%
P3
43.9%
60.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |