Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Johnston 51.0% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 70.7%
Defensive zone
Johnston 71.7%
Neutral zone
Johnston 77.4%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Roy
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Roy
Johnston
Last 6: Roy 5-1 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
52.6% (696)
-4.0%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
52.3% (88)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
42.4% (125)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Roy shoots right. Johnston is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Roy
Johnston
Home
49.3% (345)
52.8% (458)
Away
46.4% (433)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Roy
Johnston
P1
47.6%
48.9%
P2
47.1%
52.3%
P3
47.9%
51.4%
OT
75.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:41 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |