Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 49.1%). Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Johnston 49.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 59.9%
Defensive zone
Johnston 52.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 56.9%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Roy
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Roy
Johnston
Last 8: Roy 5-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Roy
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
49.3% (2,189)
-0.6%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
52.6% (173)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
44.7% (237)
+0.8%
On power play, Johnston has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Roy shoots right. Johnston is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Roy
Johnston
Home
49.5% (2,221)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Roy
Johnston
P1
50.8%
50.1%
P2
46.3%
48.3%
P3
48.1%
48.8%
OT
50.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:41 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 15:03 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |