Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Cates 45.5% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Mercer leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 65.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 76.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 72.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Mercer
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Mercer
Cates
Last 10: Mercer 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
4
1
Mercer
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
45.4% (712)
-6.6%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
42.2% (102)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On power play, Cates has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cates
Home
34.7% (144)
46.3% (423)
Away
43.2% (146)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Mercer
Cates
P1
32.7%
46.3%
P2
42.7%
47.1%
P3
42.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
39.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:15 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |