Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Cates 40.4% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 68.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 85.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Dowd
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Dowd
Cates
Last 8: Dowd 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
40.4% (841)
+14.8%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
42.4% (66)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
32.7% (147)
+5.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Dowd shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Dowd
Cates
Home
53.7% (445)
38.2% (566)
Away
47.7% (407)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Dowd
Cates
P1
48.8%
40.5%
P2
49.3%
42.4%
P3
54.0%
35.3%
OT
44.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.8%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:14 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |