Scouting Report
Pontus Holmberg holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Holmberg 44.8% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holmberg 58.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 68.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Cates
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Holmberg
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Cates
Holmberg
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Holmberg
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Cates
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
42.5% (207)
-2.1%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
40.0% (10)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
50.0% (2)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Holmberg has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Holmberg is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (145).
Home / Away
Cates
Holmberg
Home
38.2% (566)
40.9% (127)
Away
41.0% (488)
44.6% (92)
By Period
Cates
Holmberg
P1
40.5%
47.8%
P2
42.4%
43.8%
P3
35.3%
37.2%
Final 5 min
36.8%
34.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |