Scouting Report
Pontus Holmberg holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Holmberg 46.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holmberg 56.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 52.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Cates
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Holmberg
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Cates
Holmberg
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Holmberg
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Cates
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
45.5% (673)
-1.4%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
52.4% (21)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
45.9% (61)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Holmberg has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Holmberg is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Cates
Holmberg
Home
43.8% (1,663)
46.7% (418)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
44.5% (337)
By Period
Cates
Holmberg
P1
44.5%
53.5%
P2
43.5%
41.1%
P3
41.2%
42.5%
OT
29.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |