Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.6% vs 44.6%). Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Donato 45.4% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 72.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 71.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.5%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Cates
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Donato
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
3
Cates
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
43.5% (400)
+3.2%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
48.7% (119)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
33.3% (6)
+1.7%
On power play, Donato has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Cates
Donato
Home
46.1% (521)
50.2% (279)
Away
43.3% (584)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Cates
Donato
P1
48.0%
44.6%
P2
42.3%
46.6%
P3
44.3%
42.0%
OT
31.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |