Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Donato 44.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 62.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 77.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Cates
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Cates
Donato
Last 8: Cates 2-6 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
4
Cates
Donato
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Cates
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
44.2% (1,179)
-0.1%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
46.3% (246)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
36.4% (11)
-1.5%
On power play, Donato has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Cates
Donato
Home
43.8% (1,663)
47.2% (743)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Cates
Donato
P1
44.5%
43.4%
P2
43.5%
45.1%
P3
41.2%
44.4%
OT
29.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |