Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Donato 48.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 53.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 59.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 60.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Cates
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Cates
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Cates
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Cates
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
48.1% (258)
-2.7%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
43.2% (37)
-1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Donato is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Home / Away
Cates
Donato
Home
46.3% (423)
45.8% (142)
Away
43.6% (438)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Cates
Donato
P1
46.3%
48.1%
P2
47.1%
46.6%
P3
42.1%
46.8%
OT
18.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
44.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |