Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 57.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 50.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 58.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Cates
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Cates
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Cates
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
52.2% (366)
-11.8%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
60.0% (15)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
46.2% (104)
-13.5%
On power play, Lafferty has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Cates shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Cates
Lafferty
Home
38.2% (566)
53.1% (258)
Away
41.0% (488)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Cates
Lafferty
P1
40.5%
52.5%
P2
42.4%
49.7%
P3
35.3%
51.3%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |