Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Lafferty 50.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 68.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 55.7%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 58.6%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Cates
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Cates
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
50.7% (144)
-4.0%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
50.0% (2)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
50.0% (10)
-15.0%
On power play, Lafferty has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Cates shoots left. Lafferty is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Cates
Lafferty
Home
46.1% (521)
53.2% (62)
Away
43.3% (584)
48.9% (94)
By Period
Cates
Lafferty
P1
48.0%
53.3%
P2
42.3%
46.7%
P3
44.3%
52.8%
Final 5 min
42.5%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |