Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Lafferty 47.6% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 52.7%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 72.7%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 61.0%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Cates
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cates
Lafferty
Last 6: Cates 3-3 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
48.0% (1,413)
-3.9%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
45.7% (46)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
43.5% (184)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Cates shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
Cates
Lafferty
Home
43.8% (1,663)
47.3% (833)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Cates
Lafferty
P1
44.5%
49.4%
P2
43.5%
43.1%
P3
41.2%
49.8%
OT
29.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 13:10 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |