Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Cates wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Reinhart 50.5% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 76.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 81.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 74.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Cates
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Cates
Reinhart
Last 7: Cates 1-6 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Reinhart
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
5
Cates
Reinhart
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Cates
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
49.4% (259)
-9.0%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
54.4% (136)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
47.9% (71)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Cates shoots left. Reinhart is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Cates
Reinhart
Home
38.2% (566)
54.9% (235)
Away
41.0% (488)
46.3% (231)
By Period
Cates
Reinhart
P1
40.5%
52.3%
P2
42.4%
50.0%
P3
35.3%
50.0%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:31 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |