Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.0% vs 43.1%). Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Cates wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Reinhart 43.3% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 66.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Cates
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Cates
Reinhart
Last 10: Cates 5-5 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
3
6
Cates
Reinhart
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
2
Cates
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
42.5% (2,173)
+1.6%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
46.5% (525)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
41.3% (339)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Cates shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Cates
Reinhart
Home
43.8% (1,663)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Cates
Reinhart
P1
44.5%
44.5%
P2
43.5%
40.5%
P3
41.2%
44.5%
OT
29.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
41.1%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:31 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |