Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Reinhart 42.9% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 52.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Cates
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cates
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
39.0% (77)
+6.4%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
35.4% (48)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
40.9% (22)
+3.8%
On power play, Cates has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Cates shoots left. Reinhart is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Cates
Reinhart
Home
46.3% (423)
35.7% (84)
Away
43.6% (438)
41.3% (63)
By Period
Cates
Reinhart
P1
46.3%
42.6%
P2
47.1%
34.7%
P3
42.1%
37.3%
Final 5 min
44.0%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
38.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |